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October Market Update 2025

Market Update

October Market Update 2025
Recently, the Fed announced a quarter-point cut to the federal funds rate, but that was not the most exciting news that they announced. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced that we should expect two more quarter-point cuts before the end of the year, signalling that we are in the beginning innings of a Fed cutting cycle. This, of course, is huge news for the housing market. Despite the fact that many markets have retained much of their post-pandemic gains in value, the housing market has been largely stagnant, with inventories building as home buyers are waiting for rates to go down and the economy to improve.
 
The national inventory level is quite a bit higher than last year, with 11.68% more homes listed on the market. Buyers have decided to throw in the towel and wait for a better opportunity to purchase a home. When you combine this with the fact that there were 4.88% more new homes hitting the market than this time last year, you have a recipe for growing inventory.
 
Housing affordability has been a huge problem facing the country ever since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Many thought that home prices would decrease as interest rates increased, but prices remained elevated in many markets. This, of course, has left many prospective home buyers worried about where the market will go as we enter a new rate-cutting cycle. Buyers fear that lower interest rates may bring a slew of new buyers to the market, once again pushing home prices up, making home ownership less attainable. On the other hand, current homeowners stand to benefit if declining interest rates lead to a housing frenzy, as they’ll accumulate significant equity in a relatively short period, similar to what was seen throughout 2020-2022.
 

Local Lowdown

Overall, there hasn’t been much of a change in terms of the state of the overall market in the East Bay. As we all know, throughout the summer, we saw a buildup of inventory, as homebuyers reeled from the economic uncertainty presented by tariffs and swings in the stock market. Single-family home markets remain heavily within sellers' territory, with just 2.1 months of inventory on the market in Alameda County and 2.6 months in Contra Costa County. After seeing an increase in prices in August, September once again saw a dip in single-family median sale prices, dropping by 1.59% in Contra Costa County and 1.98% in Alameda County. Although inventories are slowly normalizing, listings are spending quite a bit more time on the market. The average single-family home listing in Alameda County is spending 21.43% more time on the market than this time last year, and the average Contra Costa County listing is spending 27.78% more time on the market.
 
As we move into the seasonally slow months, the market environment that we’re in is setting up for what could be a very interesting 2026. Inventories are still growing (for now), and interest rates are falling, which could put us in a great position when the spring frenzy begins next year. It’ll be important to keep a keen eye on both the market and broader macroeconomic conditions throughout the fall and winter, so that you are ready for whatever spring has to throw at you!
 
As always, Arrive Real Estate Group remains committed to helping our clients achieve their current and future real estate goals. Our team of experienced professionals are happy to discuss the information we’ve shared in this newsletter. We welcome you to contact us with any questions about the current market or to request an evaluation of your home.
 
 

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Arrive Real Estate Group

(925)-858-0398

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344 Railroad Avenue, Suite 200B

Danville, CA 94526