August Market Update 2025

This past month, we saw the Fed hold rates steady once again, as they brace for the consequences of the newly minted tariff policies that went into effect in early August. Although inflation data has led many to believe that we need to see substantial rate cuts in the not-so-distant future, Fed officials are incredibly concerned about the potential impacts of the freshly enacted tariff policy. Additionally, the Fed has a dual mandate; it’s responsible for controlling inflation and promoting maximum employment. At this point in time, we’re seeing relatively low inflation and a very low unemployment rate, so Fed officials seemingly aren’t in a hurry to cut the federal funds rate. However, we might see some movement if we see some positive commentary from the Fed in the upcoming FOMC meeting in September. Many analysts are expecting a rate cut from the Fed at this meeting.

In July, we saw median sale prices in the East Bay fall on a year-over-year basis for the sixth month in a row! Single-family home median sale prices decreased by 2.08% and 6.56% on a year-over-year basis in Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, respectively. However, it is worth noting that although we’ve seen year-over-year declines in median sale prices throughout the East Bay, we are not seeing a downward acceleration, meaning that property values are not in freefall. Instead, they’re maintaining a steady price point that’s several percentage points lower than what homes were selling for last year.

The cause of the decrease in median sale prices that we’ve seen over the past six months is more than likely the recent spike in inventory, combined with a decrease in the number of listings being sold. In July, the single-family home market saw a 6.17% decrease in the number of sold listings and a 15.68% increase in the number of active listings on the market on a year-over-year basis. As inventories rise, listings are spending considerably more time on the market. Last month, we saw a pretty substantial increase in the number of days that listings are spending on the market. Historically, inventory has moved very quickly in the East Bay, but as of July, the average single-family home is spending 16 days on the market in Alameda County and 18 days on the market in Contra Costa County, compared to homes spending 13 days on the market in both counties in July 2024.

 

As always, Arrive Real Estate Group remains committed to helping our clients achieve their current and future real estate goals. Our team of experienced professionals are happy to discuss the information we’ve shared in this newsletter. We welcome you to contact us with any questions about the current market or to request an evaluation of your home.