Leave a Message

Thank you for your message. We will be in touch with you shortly.

June Market Update 2024

Market Update

June Market Update 2024

Record High Median Home Prices Once Again

According to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), the median sales price for existing homes grew 5.6% to $418,900 between May 2023 and the present — the 11th consecutive month of year-over-year price growth, and the highest median price ever reached. Typically, the median price peaks in June each year, so we will likely see prices climb even higher when the data comes in for this month. In addition to NAR, the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index, which measures the aggregate price level of homes in the 20 largest metropolitan statistical areas, has reached a new high for the eighth month in a row. The combination of elevated mortgage rates and rising prices has brought affordability to an all-time low, which translates to fewer sales and growing inventory. However, at the same time, homes are spending less and less time on the market.
The average 30-year mortgage rate began the year at 6.62% and landed at 7.03% at the end of May, marking the third year mortgage rates have been elevated. At the start of the year, rate expectations were far different from those today. In January, inflation still appeared to be trending lower, and economists were predicting rate cuts as early as March. However, in hindsight, inflation stopped trending lower in June 2023 and has held fairly steady at around 3.3% since then. The Fed targets an inflation rate of 2%, so we aren’t expecting rate cuts anytime soon. In fact, the safest bet may be to not expect any rate cuts in 2024. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that even though rate cuts are extremely unlikely, rate hikes are even less probable.

The Local Lowdown

Since the start of 2023, single-family home inventory has followed fairly typical seasonal trends, but at significantly depressed levels. Low inventory and fewer new listings have slowed the market considerably. Typically, inventory peaks in July or August and declines through December or January, but the lack of new listings prevented meaningful inventory growth. Last year, new listings and sales peaked in May, while inventory peaked in October. New listings have been exceptionally low, so the little inventory growth in 2023 was driven by softening demand. In December 2023, inventory and sales dropped, but more new listings have come to the market in 2024, which has driven the significant increase in both inventory and sales so far this year. The market is already looking healthier, and we expect more new listings and sales in the summer months.
With the current inventory levels, the number of new listings coming to market is a significant predictor of sales. New listings rose 8% month over month, and sales followed suit, increasing 7%. Year over year, inventory is up 32%.
In the East Bay, low inventory and high demand have more than offset the downward price pressure from higher mortgage rates. Year over year, prices were up 9% in Alameda and 5% in Contra Costa. We expect prices in the East Bay to remain slightly below peak this year, although new highs are possible in June or July 2024. Low, but rising inventory is buoying prices as buyers are better able to find the best match.
As always, Arrive Real Estate Group remains committed to helping our clients achieve their current and future real estate goals. Our team of experienced professionals are happy to discuss the information we’ve shared in this newsletter. We welcome you to contact us with any questions about the current market or to request an evaluation of your home.

Let's Talk

You’ve got questions and we can’t wait to answer them.

Follow Us on Instagram